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Зарплаты выросли, а с ними и инфляция: стали ли украинцы богаче в минувшем году

Зарплаты выросли, а с ними и инфляция: стали ли украинцы богаче в минувшем году

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by Январь 5, 2019 Новости

Социальные выплаты в 2018 году не догнали рост цен

Стали ли мы богаче за минувший год? Каждая семья, конечно, имеет свой ответ и на этот вопрос.  Но, по заверениям главы Кабмина, к концу 2018 года средняя зарплата в стране выросла до 10 тыс. грн.

Конечно, пока это только субъективные данные, Укрстат обнародует официальные данные позже. Сейчас точно известно, что по состоянию на декабрь 2018-го номинальная зарплата (за ноябрь) составляла 9161 грн.

Учитывая такой показатель за ноябрь, декабрьская цифра вполне может составить даже свыше 10 тыс. грн. Ведь благодаря дополнительным выплатам в декабре средняя зарплата за этот месяц оказывается намного выше, чем за другие периоды. А в январе показатель существенно падает. Так, в 2017-м средняя зарплата за ноябрь составляла 7479 грн, в декабре она поднялась до 8777 грн, а в январе снова упала до 7711 грн.

Если смотреть, как изменилась средняя номинальная зарплата за последние 12 месяцев, то по состоянию на 1 декабря она выросла на 22,5% (с 7479 до 9161 грн). Если за декабрь 2018-го она составит обещанные 10 тыс. грн, то рост за год (от декабря до декабря) окажется скромнее: всего +14%. Чтобы темпы роста зарплат не замедлились, нужно, чтоб средняя зарплата за декабрь составляла 10 750 грн. Однако премьер предсказал, что показатель в 10,5 тыс. грн будет достигнут только к концу наступившего, 2019 года.

Реальная зарплата украинцев выросла намного меньше, чем номинальная. От ноября 2017-го до ноября 2018 года (на 1 декабря) увеличение составило уже не 22,5, а 11,4%. Причем по сравнению с октябрем рост реальных зарплат замедлился практически на 3%.

При этом инфляция по итогам года оказалась выше, чем предсказывалось в начале года и чем было заложено в бюджете. В 2017 году планировалось, что к концу 2018-го инфляция замедлится до 7,4%. В начале 2018-го НБУ ухудшил прогноз до 8,9%. А осенью регулятор вынужден был еще раз пересмотреть прогноз, повысив показатель ожидаемого уровня инфляции до 10,1%.

При этом эксперты считают, что годовой показатель инфляции может быть даже выше прогнозного. По состоянию на ноябрь инфляция составляла 10%. А в декабре она традиционно ускоряется.

Если же сравнивать рост зарплат и инфляцию по итогам ноября, получится, что за год украинцы разбогатели всего на 1,4% (реальная зарплата в годовом измерении выросла на 11,4%, а инфляция – на 10%).

А вот если измерять средние зарплаты украинцев в долларах, ситуация окажется лучше, хотя и не намного. Все благодаря тому, что гривня в течение года оказалась гораздо крепче, чем ожидалось, то есть была подвержена инфляции (девальвации) гораздо меньше, чем зарплаты в гривнях и цены.

Если сравнивать долларовый эквивалент номинальных зарплат, то, например, средняя зарплата за декабрь 2017 года составляла в Украине 8777 грн, или 312 долларов (при курсе 28,07 грн/дол.). Если к концу года, как прогнозирует Кабмин, средняя номинальная зарплата в Украине достигнет 10 тыс. грн, то при курсе 27,68 грн это будет составлять уже 361 доллар. Т. е. средняя номинальная зарплата в гривнях за год выросла на 14%, а в долларах – на 15%.

Если же на протяжении года зарплата у человека не менялась, все равно в конце года, в пересчете на доллары, он окажется чуть богаче, чем был в начале года. Например, если его зарплата весь год равнялась 10 тыс. грн, получается, в начале года он зарабатывал эквивалент 356 долларов, а в конце года, при той же зарплате в гривнях, – уже 361 доллар.

Однако эту “прибавку” к зарплате, увы, полностью съедала инфляция. Причем продукты первой необходимости по-прежнему росли в цене высокими темпами. Так, по данным Ассоциации поставщиков торговых сетей, “борщевой набор” в Украине за год подорожал на 54%

“За год стоимость борща без мяса возросла на 54%, или на 5 грн. Это блюдо по состоянию на ноябрь 2018 обходится в среднем по стране в 14,3 грн, тогда как по состоянию на ноябрь прошлого года стоило 9,3 грн”, – написал на своей странице в Facebook глава ассоциации Алексей Дорошенко.

Кроме того, довольно ощутимо в течение года дорожал хлеб. В среднем цены на “продукт №1” поднялись на 26%.

Пенсии и социальные выплаты в Украине повышаются на прогнозируемый процент инфляции. Поскольку уровень инфляции планировалось удержать в рамках 8,9%, номинальный прожиточный минимум за год поднялся только на 9% (с 1700 до 1853 грн). Минимальные пенсии и социальные выплаты повысились на столько же, то есть меньше, чем на процент инфляции.

Александра Романюк, Сегодня
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