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Какие козыри припасли кандидаты в президенты? Что может нас удивить? Кого следующего купит Коломойский? – политический эксперт Игорь Мизрах

Какие козыри припасли кандидаты в президенты? Что может нас удивить? Кого следующего купит Коломойский? – политический эксперт Игорь Мизрах

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by Март 16, 2019 Интервью

31-о марта уже не за горами, многие из кандидатов уже мечтают, чтобы этот день настал. Понимаю, что Украинский народ все эти избирательные перипетии истощили. Но, к сожалению, в последние дни марта все самое интересное только будет начинаться.

Первые апрельские дни вообще могут страну поставить на колени. Наблюдая за соцопросам мы видим просто невероятные карусели. Если в реальности взять людей, то этим рейтингам с начала марта практически не доверяют. Если спросить рядового украинца: «За кого проголосуешь?», то большинство скажут, что не определились. А те, кто четко заявляет: «Проголосуй за Зеленского” – на вопрос, а кто же победит – отвечают преимущественно- «Порошенко». Это и является своеобразным абсурдом. За счет этих опросов народом просто манипулируют, и это четко мы осознаем после дня выборов.

Если же брать в целом политическую когорту – то уже сейчас можно констатировать, что 2019 год точно проведет «естественный отбор» среди политиков. И забегая вперед, скажу, что после парламентских выборов мы явно не досчитаемся не менее сотни «зубров» украинского политикума в Верховной Раде. Но это можно расценивать больше, чем положительные изменения, ведь «стариков в бою» мы уже видели … Но некоторые из этих «вечных» политиков, осознавая свои мизерные шансы на присутствие в ВР в конце 2019 сейчас просто зубами выгрызут любой шанс, чтобы где-то пристроиться в «теплом месте».

А это может, как пойти на пользу кому-то из кандидатов на пост президента, так и кого-то просто уничтожить. Хочу заметить, что кандидаты, которые не пройдут во второй тур, но получат большую поддержку от людей – станут лакомым куском перед следующим туром для финалистов гонки в Верховну Раду.

Предполагаю, вариант первый, наиболее оптимальный для Коломойского – пройдут: Зеленский и Тимошенко. При таких условиях точно все, кроме них (речь о кандидатах) пролетят «как фанера над Парижем». Украина перейдет к четкому олигархическому управлению. Возможны небольшие восстания, но не более. Так как, Аваков с МВД и Нацдружины все возьмут под контроль. При таком варианте Порошенко бежать прийдется скорее, чем Януковичу …

Вариант второй – Зеленский и Порошенко. Также для Коломойского не самый плохой, ведь таким образом он будет стимулировать поддержку со стороны Юлии Тимошенко, конечно в обмен на пост Премьер-министра. Но здесь можно еще провести ряд дискуссий, ведь реальный рейтинг П.А. Порошенко находится в тени, и скорее всего так и останется. Но даже при победе действующего главы – покой не наступит. Украину может всколыхнуть целый ряд восстаний начиная от Нацдружин, заканчивая обычными мародерами, но хуже будет то, что МВД будут достаточно вяло реагировать на такие действия. Так что, и при победе самого Порошенко будет очень не сладко …

Вариант третий – Тимошенко и Порошенко. По статистике мало вероятен, но вполне реальный. При таком раскладе будет реальная бойня – в движение пойдет все дозволенное и недозволенное. Конечно на помощь примчится «слуга не народу» и просто будет на руках нести «Абицяючу» до заветного трона. Но на этом все не закончится. Во-первых, Коломойский захочет 100% гарантировать победу и может вытянуть интересный козырь. А им может стать – Анатолий Гриценко. Такой шаг точно гарантирует победу, и несмотря на мнения скептиков, он вполне реален. При таком варианте Зеленского, могут просто слить до парламентских выборов, а должность Премьера предложат Гриценко. А он скорее всего и не откажется. Вот такой интересный поворот может нас ждать.

Что касается других вариантов, думаю фантазировать не нужно – мы же все-таки в реальном мире живем. Замечу, что у Порошенко существенных сторонников к объединению нет, а это значит, что его противники в этот раз практически просчитали 99% избирательного процесса. А сам Петр Алексеевич подошел к выборам слишком самоуверенно, за что может поплатиться. А его цена может быть для него дороже, чем в свое время он выставил Януковичу.

Подводя итоги, констатирую – после выборов уже практически неважным будет то, реально виноват Порошенко в том, что ему инкриминируют. По его выигрышу – спокойно все прикроют, да еще и с процентами вернут потраченные средства на выборы. После выигрыша другого кандидата – все совершенные и не совершенные преступления положат ему на плечи, и дадут сутки для выезда в теплые края. И все же хочется добавить: противостояние явно будет: Порошенко против Коломойского (Тимошенко / Зеленский). И с 1 апреля Украину ждут крайне непредсказуемые действия, которые, очень надеемся, не приведут к жертвам. При победе Тимошенко / Зеленский – все пройдет немного спокойнее, чем при победе Порошенко- это факт. Но надеемся, что победит только достойный кандидат, будет делать правильные шаги к восстановлению Украины, как сильного, процветающего, суверенного государства.

Политический эксперт, Мизрах Игорь

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