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Ігор Мізрах: «Сталось все як я передбачав». Хто буде Президентом?

Ігор Мізрах: «Сталось все як я передбачав». Хто буде Президентом?

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by Апрель 9, 2019 Интервью

Анатолій Гриценко хоче дружби із Зеленським, та чи потрібно це вже Коломойському…

Перший тур вже минув і практично мало хто згадує про кандидатів, які не пройшли до фіналу Президентської гонки. А це, звісно, багатьом із цих людей не підходить. Розуміємо, що частина із них були сателітами для віп-кандидатів, та є і ті, яким вкрай важливо зараз хоча б втримати свій рейтинг до Парламентських виборів, аби провести свою політичну силу у Верховну Раду.

Та не без того, що дехто з них не має великого терпіння і хоче вже зараз відхопити якесь «тепле містечко», можливо навіть і ціле міністерство.

В попередній своїй публікації «Тимошеко відмовилась бути модератором дебатів. Як розцінювати таке рішення? Що підштовхнуло її ігнорувати флешмоб Зеленського?» я написав, що не виключаю такої можливості, що Юлія Володимирівна може стати Прем’єр-Міністром, це звісно, за перемоги Володимира Зеленського. Та водночас зазначив, що вона все ж холодною обачністю ставиться до всього, що зараз відбувається. А те, що вона проігнорувала запит «Зе-кандидата» стати модератором дебатів, я більше пов’язую із тим, що вона прочула щось не дуже добре, усвідомлюючи, що Зеленський робить зараз багато помилок, які вдаряють суттєво по його рейтингах. Вона розуміє, що ще кілька днів, і може бути всяке, і навіть таке, що «Зе-команда» піде поступово на дно, а їй, ну дуже хочеться залишитись у політиці і втримати хоч наявний свій електорат, адже вибори у ВР вже скоро.

Юлія Тимошенко просто обережна і все. І їй не обов’язково вести дебати, щоб стати Прем’єром, бо логічно мислячі люди усвідомлюють, що «Зе-Президенту» потрібен буде реально сильний політик із світовим ім’ям, а Тимошенко є хорошим варіантом…

Одним із кандидатів, що вже покинув гонку, але бажає залишатись на «гребені хвилі» є Анатолій Степанович Гриценко. Варто зазначити, що його дії, які я опишу нижче, я спрогнозував задовго до першого туру виборів, це детально висвітлив у своїй публікації  «Які козирі припасли кандидати в президенти? Що може нас здивувати? Кого наступного купить Коломойський?» ще 15 березня. На цей час ніхто такі ходи навіть не міг собі уявити. Та, як бачимо, мене моє чуття і логіка не підвели.

Я веду до того, що в наступній своїй публікації я наведу явні факти і обґрунтування на тему «хто стане Президентом України», а кому цікаво слідкуйте.

Повертаючись до Анатолія Гриценка, вважаю, що не так важко прорахувати  його кроки, адже  з року в рік вони систематично повторюються. І як ми розуміємо – це надзвичайних дивідендів йому і Україні не принесло. Він переважно пролітає повз бажані цілі. Саме по його політичному досвіду можна явно заявити, що Україні потрібні нові яскраві обличчя. Адже від нього і від багатьох його колег «по цеху» вже ніхто нічого нового не чекає. Такі люди- це минуле Держави, це період застою, вибачте за прямоту, але це моя думка, і по Закону України я маю право її висловлювати.

В своїй публікації я передбачав, що Коломойський для 100% перемоги одного з своїх кандидатів може піти на об’єднання із Гриценком. Це звісно, цікавіше б виглядало і було б більш потрібним за проходження до другого туру пари «Тимошенко-Порошенко», та не варто виключати варіант єднання із Зеленським перед другим туром. Та вважаю, що попри колосальне бажання Анатолія Степановича подружитись із Володимиром Олександровичем, такий розклад не дуже зараз і потрібен Ігорю Коломойському. Адже «Зе-кандидат» показав шикарний результат в першому турі, і за рахунок свого високого рейтингу він не надто потребує такої підтримки.

Тим більше, тривалий час команда шоу-мена заявляє, що бажає оновити владу, а старим політикам поряд з ними буде тісно.

Нагадаю, що на днях Анатолій Гриценко завив ЗМІ, що не буде більше балотуватись у Президенти, та це не єдина цікава новина з його вуст. Крім того, він чітко зазначив, що має намір подружитись із Володимиром Зеленським. А після особистої зустрічі, «можливо», і підтримає його у другому турі.

Якщо брати цих двох політиків, то вони не дуже поєднуються між собою за параметрами, та й їхні програми і погляди на український політикум м’яко кажучи не зовсім збігаються. Та чого ж не зробиш заради власної вигоди? Чи не так… (сказано про Гриценка)? А такий союз може принести Гриценку, якщо не Прем’єрське крісло (хоч і таке можна припускати), то хоча б якусь також дуже важливу посаду.

Думаю про керівництво в ГПУ чи СБУ не варто говорити, бо туди Коломойський посадить більш близьких людей, а про крісло Міністра Оборони можна задуматись. Тут просто інше питання – а чи потрібно це зараз «Зе-команді»?

Вийшло так, що Гриценко був пасивний доти, доки не пересвідчився, що треба хапатись за Зеленського, та чи не розцінять це як вимушений крок на зустріч. Тим більше за роки в політиці Анатолія Степановича знають лише як людину, яка виключно причалює до тих, в кого все добре, а працювати в команді на досягнення результату він не дуже любить. Його мета- приходити на все готове.

Моя думка, що Анатолій Гриценко запізно виявив політичні симпатії до Володимира Зеленського, і їх я асоціюю із його виключно особисто корисливими мотивами.  Вважаю, якщо в них не складеться дружба, то на його політичних амбіціях можна буде ставити помаленьку «хрест». Адже самостійно  на виборах у ВР він досягне не високого результату. Пройде в Парламент, але рахуватись із ними не будуть.

Ми обговорили, що Зеленський і без підтримки Гриценка може перемогти, та не забуваймо, що «Зе-команда» пообіцяла на дебатах оголосити список своєї команди, що бдуаватиме «Нову Україну». І це, звісно, є для Анатолія Степановича, солідним шансом. Адже Зеленський не представить на всі високі державні посади соратників із «Студії Квартал-95». Це б спричинило масові обурення і практично анулювало його шанси на перемогу.

Анатолій Гриценко досвідчений політик, який має за собою підтримку з народу. Варіант зробити його соратником- є ідеальним для перемоги, таким чином «Зе-кандидат» «зіб’є двох  зайців»: отримає додаткову підтримку і реального політика для відводу очей. Це засвідчить, що його команда складається не виключно із політиків-аматорів.

Під час написання цієї статті таки  відбулась зустріч між Зеленським і Гриценком, про це повідомив сам Анатолій Степанович на своїй сторінці у Фейсбук. Його висловлювання спричинило шквал бурних емоцій, і коментарів на різний смак. Він подав свою думку настільки неоднозначно, що кожен може її трактувати як захоче. Він заявив, що Зеленський не готовий стати президентом, але усвідомлює відповідальність і буде опиратись на професіоналів, яких у нього ще немає, і аж коли він їх оголосить тоді і Гриценко його офіційно підтримає. А почав Анатолій Степанович з того, що приїхав не домовлятись за посаду, але з його висловлювання стає явно зрозуміло, що він запропонував «Зе-кандидату» підтримку в обмін на одне із «крісел», які він перечислив в своєму пості. Та й ще зробив «ведмежу послугу» Володимиру, запитавши про його зв’язок із Коломойським. А на закінчення,  в своїй заяві додав, що проголосує  за Зеленського, але якщо той  обере на важливі посади людей, які йому підходитимуть…

Нерозумію, для чого брехати? Чому прямо не сказати: «Проголосую, якщо одна із важливих посад буде моєю!» Саме це має на увазі Гриценко.  Все так, як я прогнозував…

Із всього вище написаного можна зробити висновок, що швидше за все об’єднання Зеленського з Гриценком таки має бути, адже така партія вигідна обом. Ще раз хочу підкреслити – такий сюжет я передбачав задовго до першого туру.

Але чи буде це? Чи потрібно це Коломойському? І Чи взагалі прийде Зеленський на дебати? Та які шанси обох кандидатів? А найголовніше – що відбувається в штабі Зеленського і чому він допускає дитячі помилки, що спричиняють падіння рейтингу? – про це та багато іншого вже в наступній публікаціі….

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