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Грозит ли Швеции война с Россией

Грозит ли Швеции война с Россией

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by Январь 19, 2018 Мировые новости

Гонка вооружений возвращается в классическом виде

Россия «исследовала на прочность нервов» своих северных и западных соседей беспилотниками, заходом в суверенные воды подлодок, нарушением воздушного пространства разведчиками и даже бомбардировщиками, показательной «игрой мускулов» на всё более масштабных военных учениях. Плюс крайне неоднозначные, мягко говоря, комментарии официальных лиц относительно военной доктрины и взаимоотношений с соседями.

В ответ страны Балтии и Скандинавия одна за другой признают целесообразным изменение своих военных доктрин, довооружение территориальной обороны, возобновление призыва, перевооружение армий, активизацию взаимоотношений с НАТО (это демонстрируют как члены НАТО, так и номинально нейтральные государства), укрепление рубежей на суше, на море и в воздухе. В ответ Россия заявляет. что также вынуждена будет изменить военные планы и усилить вооружение армии… Классика полувековой давности, в целом.

На сегодня в фокусе – тероборона Швеции. Королевство после воскресной конференции по вопросам безопасности «Народ и оборона», в котором принимал участие Генсек НАТО, обнародовало окончательные планы тотальной милитаризации страны перед лицом российской угрозы (что причиной стало именно поведение РФ, указано в официальных документах). Россия уже успела продемонстрировать первую реакцию: напомнила о нейтральном статусе Швеции и предупредила, что в ответ также примет меры. Учитывая, что ранее в ответ на российские действия (в частности, агрессию РФ на Донбассе и аннексию Крыма) активизировались в оборонном плане Норвегия, Финляндия, Литва, Латвия, Эстония, Польша, Румыния… Россия планомерно окружает себя врагами.

Если в 2008-м (нападение на Грузию) эксперты говорили о «маленькой победоносной войне» как элементе президентской предвыборной кампании, то нынешние реалии уже никак не подходят под определение ни «маленькой», ни «победоносной» войны: Россия намерена противостоять НАТО. По крайней мере, именно так это выглядит. Притом из вооружённых союзников у Кремля – только Северная Корея с ядерными ракетами. За которой пристально наблюдают США и Япония, а также Южная Корея.

Учитывая эти моменты, действия России скорее нацелены на иной результат: провоцирование тотальной изоляции, опускание «железного занавеса» и реанимация даже не тоталитаризма, а скорее специфической формы монархии. На это же намекают предложенные в последние недели изменения в Конституцию: нынешняя «чрезмерно демократична», «написана в угоду Западу», «угрожает национальной стабильности» и «не отвечает национальным традициям». Суть поправок – собственно тоталитаризация и отчасти монархизация государственной системы, если можно так выразиться. И следующим шагом логично будет возобновить монархию – идея озвучивалась уже не раз и нашла полную поддержку в обществе.

Итог: масштабной войны «Россия против всех» всё-таки не будет. Но провокации, в том числе вооружённые, вполне возможны. Поэтому решения Швеции, стран Балтии и остальных государств рациональны и своевременны

Алексей Голобуцкий

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