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Гривня, дорогие кредиты и новые субсидии: как изменится жизнь украинцев в апреле

Гривня, дорогие кредиты и новые субсидии: как изменится жизнь украинцев в апреле

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by Март 29, 2018 Новости

Крупных должников по кредитам в апреле внесут в единый реестр, которым смогут пользоваться все банки. Кроме того, и сами кредитные ставки могут вырасти. Также уже через считанные дни военные на пенсии смогут получить пересчитанные пенсии, а часть субсидиантов останутся без скидок.

“Обозреватель” выяснил, как жизнь украинцев может измениться в следующем месяце.

Кредиты могут подорожать, а гривня подешеветь

Украинцы уже с апреля будут попадать в реестр должников НБУ. Банки обязали вносить в реестр информацию о крупных должниках, а распоряжаться информацией будет регулятор. Согласно уже принятому закону, в реестр попадут ФИО, информация о кредите, возможная связь должника с приближенному к банку людьми, доход, вид деятельности.

Теперь, придя в банк, менеджер должен будет попросить подпись с разрешением внести персональную информацию в реестр. В Нацбанке убеждают, что данные не попадут в “ненужные руки” и гарантируют конфиденциальность. Реестр должников создали в первую очередь для самих же банков.

Подобные реестры существуют и сейчас, но пользуются ими по желанию. С апреля все банки должны вносить информацию в реестр и перед тем, как выдавать кредит клиенту, смогут проверить, нет ли его в “черном списке”. Коснется такое нововведение только крупных должников, если сумма их просроченного кредита перевалила за 372 тыс. грн (эквивалент 50 минимальных зарплат).

К слову, в одной из первых редакций законопроекта о создании реестра предлагали не ограничивать сумму долга, в таком случае Нацбанку пришлось бы обрабатывать огромный массив информации. В конечном варианте размер долга увеличили.

Репутация важна не только для банка, но и для клиента, пояснила на одной из публичных дискуссий замглавы НБУ Екатерина Рожкова. По ее словам все крупные должники, “займут свое почетное место в блэк-листе и ни один нормальный банк не будет с ними работать”.

К слову, о кредитах. По оценка экспертов, уже в апреле они могут существенно подорожать – на 1-2 процентных пункта. Правда, параллельно должны расти и ставки по банковским депозитам. Как пояснил экономист Егор Киян, в результате повышения учетной ставки НБУ с 14,5 до 17% в этом году в Украине может замедлиться инфляция и сократиться кредитование. Банки будут активнее покупать облигации внутреннего госзайма (на последних торгах спрос вырос в два раза) и искать способы обеспечения более высоких ставок по депозитам.

“Банки должны продумывать уровень доходности. Теоретически это приводит к росту ставок по депозитам и кредитам. Параллельно с повышением депозитных ставок, банкам нужно пересматривать кредитный портфель и смотреть, куда инвестировать”, – рассказывает Киян.

В теории учетная ставка НБУ должна соответствовать ставкам по банковским депозитам, однако на практике у каждого банка индивидуальные ставки по кредитам и депозитам. Это объясняется разной структурой активов банков: у кого-то кредитный портфель значительно превышает депозитный, и наоборот. “Можно предположить, что в ближайший месяц ставки по кредитам и депозитам могут повыситься на 1-2% п.п”, – подытожил эксперт.

А вот курс гривни в апреле, скорее всего, будет колебаться в пределах 26-26,5 грн/$. Традиционно апрель-май проходят без особых скачков. Правда, в этом году ситуация может усугубиться плохими новостями от МВФ. Если Украине в ближайшие месяцы не удастся договориться с Фондом, по оценкам опрошенных “Обозревателем” экспертов, курс может подскочить до 30 грн. Без МВФ приостановится макрофинансовая помощь от ЕС, сотрудничество с Мировым банком, некоторые программы Европейского банка реконструкции и развития.

Последний месяц “зимней” субсидии и тарифы на паузе

В апреле в Украине заканчивается отопительный сезон, а уже в мае семьи будут получать пересчитанные коммунальные скидки. И для многих может оказаться, что на неотопительный сезон субсидия не полагается. Точную цифру тех, кого могут “отсеять”, чиновники не называют, однако по оценкам экспертов, в результате роста доходов окажется, что право на скидку потеряет каждая пятая семья.

Кстати, официально уже закончился отопительный сезон для тех, кто отапливает свои дома автономно. Они уже с 15 апреля не получают скидки на покупку энергоресурсов для отопления.

Для примера “Обозреватель” рассчитал размер субсидии для семьи из 4 человек – два ребенка и два взрослых с минимальными зарплатами. Так, на данный момент такая семья должна платить за коммуналку не больше 472 гривни (остальное компенсирует субсидий). После грядущего перерасчета эта же семья, согласно правилам, должна платить за коммуналку с субсидией не больше 611 гривен. И если этой суммы хватит на оплату коммуналки без отопления, то субсидию могут снять.

Также в апреле в Украине должны пересчитать тариф на газ. Правда, до сих пор неизвестно, пойдет ли на такой шаг, или же решение в очередной раз отсрочат. В конце прошлого года представитель МВФ в Украине Йост Люнгман в очередной раз напомнил – удерживание тарифа на газ на уровне импортного паритета является “обязательством Украины по программе, которую поддерживает МВФ”.

Или Украина пересмотрит стоимость газа, или придется справляться без очередного кредитного транша. А в условиях, когда на следующие несколько лет приходятся большие платежи по старым долгам, справиться без Фонда будет сложно. Уже известно, что по формуле согласно 187-му постановлению Кабмин поднимать тариф на газ не согласен. Эту информацию подтвердили “Обозревателю” и приближенные к переговорному процессу с МВФ источники.

Есть и другой вариант: изменить период, за который высчитывают среднюю цену на газ на немецком хабе, и исключить из тарифа транспортировку газа из Дюссельдорфа. В таком случае стоимость голубого топлива может вырасти для украинцев на 12-14%. А по “старой” формуле – на 62%.

Военные получат пересчитанные пенсии

Пенсии военным в Украине уже пересчитали, но повышенные выплаты они получат в апреле этого года. При расчете учитывали оклад, звание и надбавки. Военные в 2018-м получат 50% от надбавки, в 2019-м- 25%, а в 2020-м – еще 25%.

“Основные выплаты начнутся с 1 апреля. Пенсии будут пересчитаны с 1 января 2018 года. То есть в апреле военные пенсионеры получат пересчитанную пенсию за январь-апрель”, – отметили в Минобороны.

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